Courtesy Of Kenya Daily Express
A survey of Kenyan voters exiting polling places for the March 4
election shows a statistical tie between Uhuru Kenyatta and Raila
Odinga, with both candidates receiving about 41 per cent of the vote.
The so-called exit poll was conducted by two US political scientists and included about 6000 Kenyan voters. The results captured on this video link were released at a Washington think-tank forum on Thursday.
The exit poll showed Mr Odinga receiving 40.9 per
cent of votes and Mr Kenyatta 40.6 per cent, with support for other
candidates accounting for some of the remainder. Nearly 12 per cent of the Kenyans included in the survey refused to indicate for whom they had voted in the presidential race.
The results represent "a statistical tie" between
the two top vote-getters due to the survey's margin of error, the
pollsters said. One of the pollsters, Harvard University vitiating
professor James Long, acknowledged under sharp questioning from the
audience that the margin of error could be as high as three per cent. But even taking account of various statistical
uncertainties, Prof Long said, "There is no reasonable assumption that
gets either candidate to 50 per cent."
For example, the contention that Mr Kenyatta
benefited from a comparatively much higher turnout in Kikuyu-dominated
parts of the country was shown through the exit poll to be "a myth,"
Prof Long declared.
He and his colleague, Prof Clark Gibson of the
University of California at San Diego, declined to identify precise
causes for the discrepancy between their survey's results and the
outcome certified by the Independent Elections and Boundaries
Commission.
The official result showed Mr Kenyatta winning slightly more than 50 percent and thus avoiding a second-round runoff.
The pollsters have "no evidence of people stuffing ballots" or buying votes, Prof Long said.
"Why should somebody believe the results of the election are invalid?" a member of the audience asked. Prof Long suggested, "Because people broke the law when they counted votes." Prof Long said at the outset of his presentation
at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies
that exit polls are "immune" to ballot stuffing or technological
breakdowns.
Data from the survey also indicated that both Mr
Odinga and Mr Kenyatta enjoyed overwhelming support from their
respective ethnic groups. Mr Kenyatta received 83 per cent of the Kikuyu
vote, according to the exit poll, while Mr Odinga got 94 per cent of the
Luo vote, the survey indicated. Among Kalenjin included in the poll, 74 per cent voted for Mr Kenyatta and 11 percent for Mr Odinga.
For Kamba who took part in the survey, the breakdown was 63 per cent for Mr Odinga and 12 per cent for Mr Kenyatta.
Overall, "there seems to be some loosening of ethnic identification" with particular candidates, Prof Long suggested. In response to a survey question asking
participants to name the most important issue behind their choice, most
cited either the economy or employment.
Very few voters identified tribalism, land or the
cases before the International Criminal Court as the most important
issues in the election.